Impact of Climate Change on Dynamics of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Occurence in Mataram


Tri BaskoroTunggul Satoto1), Tri Wibawa2), Nur Alvira3)Roger Frutos4), Sylvie Maguin5)

 

1)Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada

2)Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing Universitas Gadjah Mada

3)Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Respati Yogyakarta

4,5)University of Montpellier

 

ABSTRACT

 

Backgrounds:Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Indonesia. Many studies have investigated the effects of climate factors on dengue transmission. Climate change impacts factors relevant to the mosquito population. This study aimed to deter­mine the association between climate change and dynamics of dengue hemorrhagic fever occurence in Mataram,West Nusa Tenggara.

Subjects and Method:This was a retrospective-cohort study conducted at Mataram, West Nusa Tenggara. A total sample of 2574 cases of DHF in Mataram. The dependent variables was DHF case were obtained from communicable diseases report at the Muni­cipality Health Office in last five years from 2013 to 2017. The independent variable were humidity, wind speed, temperature, and rainfall. The climate change data in last five years were taken from me­teo­rological, climatological, and geophysical agency (BMKG), Mataram. The data were analyzed by a multiple linear regression.

Result:DHF occurrence was associated with humidity (95%CI= 82.34 to 83.70; p=0.002) and rain fall(95%CI= 121.27 to 183.66; p=0.044).The associations between temperature (95%CI= 26.35 to 26.79; p=0.057) and wind speed (95%CI= 3.69 to 4.51; p=0.636)and DHF were not statically significant. Adjusted R2= 14.8%.

Conclusion:Humidity and rainfall are associated dengue hemorrhagic fever occurence.

Keywords:climate change, humidity, rainfall, DHF.

Correspondence: Tri Baskoro Tunggul Satoto.Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine,Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada. Email: irha011185@yahoo.com. Mobile: +6281­76616­928, 0274-4437888.

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.26911/theicph.2019.05.37

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