Spatial Analysis and Risk Factors Modelling of Measles in Children Aged 0-59 Months in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara

Yulianti Marina Bale, Pius Weraman, Imelda F.E Manurung


Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Nusa Cendana, Kupang



Background: Measles is a highly infectious viral illness. A rapid assessment of factors contributing to virus spread at the local level, particularly an evaluation of the available vaccination coverage data in the affected population and in surrounding communities, is urgently needed. Many statistical and mathematical modelling tools that leverage demographic,  coverage,  and  case-based  surveillance  data, have been developed  to detect high risk areas, either pre-emptively, or in the early stages of measles outbreaks. This study aimed to examine spatial analysis and risk factors modelling of measles in children aged 0-59 months in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara.

Subjects and Method: A case control study was carried out in 16 villages in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara. A sample of 74 children aged 0-59 months was selected by simple random sampling. The dependent variable was measles. The independent variables were measles immunization history and nutritional status. The data were collected by questionnaire and analyzed by a multiple logistic regression.

Results:  Spatial  analysis  showed  that  Bonipoi,  Fontein,  and  Lai-Lai  Bissi  Kopan villages were the most risky areas of measles than other areas. The risk of measles increased with no measles immunization history (OR= 17.68; 95% CI= 5.16 to 60.51; p<0.001) and poor nutritional status (OR= 4.34; 95% CI= 1.05 to 17.99; p= 0.043).

Conclusion: The risk of measles increases with no measles immunization history and poor nutritional status.

Keywords: measles, immunization, nutritional status, partial analysis

Correspondence: Yulianti Marina Bale. Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Nusa Cendana. Jl. Adisucipto, Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Email: Mobile: 081246103961.


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