Determinants of Fertility in Indonesia: An Analysis from Basic Life Survey Data Year 2017

Karlinda1), Didik Gunawan Tamtomo2), Vitri Widyaningsih2)


1)Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret

2)Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret



Background: Indonesia is in the fourth position with the largest population in the world (274 million people) after China, India, and the United States. Currently, Indonesia is experiencing a demographic bonus and also has a high dependency ratio (46.6%). It resulting in heavy burdens that must be borne by the productive age population to finance the lives of the unproductive population. The high population in Indonesia is determined by the high number of children born alive. The purpose of this study was to examine the determinants of fertility in Indonesia.

Subjects and Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted using Indonesian Population Demographic Survey year 2017. A sample of 49,627 reproductive women aged 15-49 years who had ever give birth was selected for this study. The dependent variable was fertility (based on number of children born alive). The independent variables were contaceptive use, contraceptive method, source of information, knnowledge toward contraception, history of birth delivery, and residence. The data were analyzed by path analysis run on Stata 13.

Results: Fertility increased with traditional contraceptive use (b= 0.51; 95% CI= 0.41 to 0.61; p<0.001), information from government (b= 0.59; 95% CI= 0.46 to 0.72; p <0.001), low education toward contraceptive (b= 0.89; 95% CI= 0.49 to 1.29; p <0.001), birth delivery <1 year (b= 0.10; 95% CI= -0.05 to 0.25; p= 0.187), health assurance participant (b= 0.54; 95% CI= 0.44 to 0.64; p<0.001), living in urban area (b= 0.32; 95% CI= 0.22 to 0.41; p<0.001), hormonal contraceptive use (b= 0.08; 95% CI= -0.10 to 0.25; p= 0.408), and living in west Indonesian (b= 0.57; 95% CI= 0.47 to 0.66; p<0.001). Fertility decreased with family decision on contraceptive use (b= -0.31; 95% CI= -0.42 to -0.21; p<0.001), education ≥Senior high school (b= -1.25; 95% CI= -1.35 to -1.16; p<0.001), and high family wealth (b= -0.50; 95% CI= -0.60 to -0.40; p<0.001).

Conclusion: Fertility increases with traditional contraceptive use, information from government, low education toward contraceptive, birth delivery <1 year, health assurance participant, living in urban area, hormonal contraceptive use, and living in west Indonesian. Fertility decreases with family decision on contraceptive use, education ≥Senior high school, and high family wealth.

Keywords: fertility, basic health survey year 2017

Correspondence: Karlinda. Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A, Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia. Email: Mobile: +6282278924093.


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